Tue, Nov 12, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 16 | 29 | 324 |
| SJS | 38 | 28 | 19 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Marcus Sorensen, Radim Simek · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:27SJSEvander KaneAssists: Logan Couture, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 11:12SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Tim Heed, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 1:26SJSBarclay GoodrowGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 9:57EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Sam Gagner, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 17:34SJSTomas HertlAssists: Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 9:08EDMZack KassianAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 10:30SJSTimo MeierAssists: Erik Karlsson, Barclay Goodrow · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–6
- P3 12:18EDMSam GagnerAssists: Patrick Russell, Joakim Nygard · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:48EDMJoakim Nygard: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:28SJSEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:48SJSMelker Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:15EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:27SJSTomas Hertl: Interference2 min
- P2 15:27EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:27EDMBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:27SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:27EDMBrandon Manning: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:36EDMEthan Bear: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:04EDMLeon Draisaitl: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid12:25
xG 1.24–0.04 (97%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Gagner – Russell – Nygard10:13
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira8:12
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Neal – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins10:03
xG 0.12–0.47 (21%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Benning2:47
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Benning – Nurse3:56
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Manning7:21
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Kane – Labanc10:51
xG 0.83–0.53 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Sorensen12:08
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Goodrow – Hertl – Meier8:54
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Gregor – Gambrell6:29
xG 0.07–0.69 (9%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Heed13:47
xG 0.86–0.45 (66%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson12:43
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
- Burns – Simek16:29
xG 0.67–0.93 (42%)attempts 19–25goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).