Wed, Nov 13, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 09 | 39 | 425 |
| NJD | 211 | 07 | 05 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19NJDWayne SimmondsAssists: Miles Wood, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 14:54OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Connor Brown · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 17:52NJDWill ButcherAssists: Nikita Gusev, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 13:30OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Filip Chlapik · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 17:59OTTJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Nick Paul, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 19:34OTTJean-Gabriel PageauENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:44OTTJ.C. Beaudin: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:50NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:25OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Paul12:52
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Duclair – White – Tkachuk10:54
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Chlapik – Beaudin4:00
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Ennis – Tierney6:23
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot16:22
xG 1.45–0.44 (77%)attempts 21–5goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Brannstrom9:24
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Zaitsev13:14
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hughes10:35
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev7:23
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier10:03
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Wood – Rooney7:11
xG 0.21–0.59 (27%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tennyson – Mueller11:38
xG 0.54–0.58 (48%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2
- Greene – Severson15:21
xG 0.50–0.74 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Subban – Butcher16:26
xG 0.56–1.12 (34%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).