Wed, Nov 13, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New York Islanders 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 213 | 29 | 427 |
| NYI | 29 | 16 | 215 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:23NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 19:21NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 0:43TORKasperi KapanenAssists: John Tavares, Travis Dermott · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 11:22TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Jake Muzzin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 16:43NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Derick Brassard, Brock Nelson · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 8:07NYIDerick BrassardPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock · Slap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 17:32NYICasey CizikasENGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.58 xG2–5
- P3 18:13TORJustin HollAssists: Frederik Gauthier, Nicholas Shore · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 19:22TORJohn TavaresAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:55NYIRoss Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:49TORTravis Dermott: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:40NYIDevon Toews: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:25TORJake Muzzin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:13TORWilliam Nylander: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestShore – Petan – Gauthier8:30
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Kapanen12:01
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Moore – Mikheyev8:49
xG 0.15–0.49 (24%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews12:35
xG 0.67–1.05 (39%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Ceci15:02
xG 0.71–0.30 (71%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Barrie15:07
xG 0.56–0.82 (41%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Holl – Dermott12:51
xG 0.29–0.87 (25%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Nelson – Beauvillier4:58
xG 0.63–0.04 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal11:49
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Dal Colle4:09
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Komarov – Brassard – Dal Colle5:20
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews15:06
xG 0.87–0.42 (68%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Pelech – Pulock16:49
xG 1.18–0.80 (60%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
- Leddy – Mayfield2:03
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).