Wed, Nov 13, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 116 | 06 | 011 | 03 | 2 | 236 |
| PHI | 05 | 012 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:13WSHBrendan LeipsicAssists: John Carlson, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 6:38PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 5. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:23PHIMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P1 15:26WSHJakub Vrana: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:02PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:46WSHRichard Panik: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:47PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:01WSHJakub Vrana: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:15WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Panik – Stephenson9:47
xG 0.83–0.10 (89%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana8:59
xG 0.85–0.20 (81%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway3:46
xG 0.34–0.08 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:22
xG 0.23–0.48 (32%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny14:28
xG 0.96–0.22 (82%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Orlov – Gudas13:16
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Jensen – Siegenthaler9:00
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Hayes – Andreoff2:15
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl5:32
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Hayes4:35
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Hayes – Twarynski3:22
xG 0.01–0.42 (3%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Provorov13:23
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Braun – Gostisbehere10:15
xG 0.17–0.48 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers15:10
xG 0.34–1.76 (16%)attempts 13–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).