Wed, Nov 13, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 3, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 118 | 26 | 332 |
| CGY | 08 | 06 | 111 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:22DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Denis Gurianov, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P3 6:38DALJustin DowlingGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 9:57CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 18:27DALJoe PavelskiENAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:53CGYTravis Hamonic: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:18DALJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:02DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:27CGYSam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P3 2:05CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:38DALRadek Faksa: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Gurianov – Caamano6:14
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Dowling – Seguin6:55
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Radulov – Dickinson7:43
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa7:30
xG 0.17–0.57 (22%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Hanley11:17
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen4:56
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Sekera – Lindell9:56
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk8:00
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk4:33
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan9:34
xG 0.29–0.16 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bennett – Mangiapane – Ryan3:59
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin6:08
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson7:00
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson10:13
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).