Thu, Nov 14, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 210 | 17 | 19 | 13 | 529 |
| BUF | 19 | 110 | 214 | 00 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Conor Sheary, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:07CARJordan StaalAssists: Brett Pesce, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 17:17CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 0:49CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 15:04BUFCurtis LazarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 13:35BUFHenri JokiharjuUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 16:06CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:19BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–4
- OT 2:28CARDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Martin Necas · Slap, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:38CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:09CARBrian Gibbons: Holding2 min
- P1 15:38BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:02CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:03BUFJohan Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:33BUFSam Reinhart: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:06BUFSam Reinhart: Misconduct10 min
- OT 1:19CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- OT 1:19BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- OT 2:28BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Haula – Gibbons – McGinn6:51
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Wallmark – Necas8:28
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Staal – Dzingel – Foegele11:08
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov15:00
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gardiner – Fleury10:02
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Hamilton – Slavin16:08
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Pesce17:48
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Sheary – Rodrigues9:04
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:20
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Larsson – Vesey – Mittelstadt2:05
xG 0.06–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons5:58
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen14:19
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Scandella – Jokiharju12:08
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Montour – Dahlin14:39
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).