Thu, Nov 14, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 04 | 117 | 39 | 430 |
| FLA | 010 | 115 | 212 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:45WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 15:08FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Mike Hoffman, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 4:28WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 7:13FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Brian Boyle, Brett Connolly · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 14:52WPGMark ScheifeleSHAssists: Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.29 xG3–2
- P3 17:02WPGAdam LowrySHGWGAssists: Andrew Copp, Tucker Poolman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 18:26FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:15WPGMark Scheifele: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:08WPGDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:45WPGJack Roslovic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Copp11:23
xG 0.84–0.11 (89%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic13:25
xG 1.06–0.34 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine2:09
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Shaw – Gustafsson – Luoto4:31
xG 0.04–0.25 (15%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Beaulieu11:03
xG 0.74–0.10 (89%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Poolman – Morrissey17:50
xG 1.19–0.94 (56%)attempts 19–14goals 3–1
- Kulikov – Pionk18:14
xG 0.88–0.83 (52%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:29
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Connolly – Trocheck12:06
xG 0.87–0.89 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Vatrano – Malgin6:10
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari7:01
xG 0.14–0.24 (38%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Brown9:45
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stralman – Matheson19:22
xG 1.04–1.36 (43%)attempts 19–23goals 1–4
- Yandle – Ekblad19:15
xG 0.48–1.22 (28%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).