Thu, Nov 14, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 2, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 114 | 08 | 233 |
| EDM | 410 | 213 | 05 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 6:16EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:14EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom, James Neal · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 12:42EDMZack KassianGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P1 15:51EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 8:32EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.08 xG1–5
- P2 16:36COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–5
- P2 18:15EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.11 xG2–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:28EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:28COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:56EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P1 11:47COLTyson Jost: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:30COLRyan Graves: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:24EDMEthan Bear: Holding2 min
- P2 4:22COLRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:48COLNazem Kadri: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:32EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:44COLVladislav Kamenev: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:55EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:26COLRyan Graves: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:37EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Nichushkin – Bellemare5:46
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Compher7:08
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Tynan – Kamenev – Jost3:01
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tynan – Nieto – Bellemare2:30
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Connauton10:52
xG 0.86–0.15 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard9:55
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Graves – Makar10:38
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid9:07
xG 0.82–0.52 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Neal – Archibald – Nugent-Hopkins8:40
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Khaira – Russell10:06
xG 0.16–0.23 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Nygard – Haas7:44
xG 0.06–0.35 (14%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear11:15
xG 0.84–0.70 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
- Russell – Benning13:46
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Jones12:18
xG 0.20–0.46 (30%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).