Thu, Nov 14, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 5, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 19 | 315 | 535 |
| ANA | 110 | 111 | 111 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09ANARickard RakellAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:44SJSTomas HertlAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 13:00ANAJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 18:28SJSTomas HertlAssists: Timo Meier, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 8:05SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Evander Kane, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 10:32SJSEvander KaneSHGWGAssists: Logan Couture · Tip-in, 0.36 xG4–2
- P3 15:50ANAMax JonesAssists: Carter Rowney, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:21SJSLogan CoutureUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:36ANAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:33SJSDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:33ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:18SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:16SJSMelker Karlsson: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 12:39SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:56ANAMax Jones: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:42ANADerek Grant: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 9:10SJSDalton Prout: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Hertl – Meier8:37
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Marleau – Couture – Kane4:31
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc3:07
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Labanc7:23
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson13:11
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Burns – Dillon3:55
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Burns – Simek10:44
xG 0.76–0.73 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Deslauriers – Rowney8:28
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Kase8:03
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Terry – Steel – Jones6:37
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell9:06
xG 0.19–0.64 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Mahura9:22
xG 0.75–0.60 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Guhle3:08
xG 0.03–0.08 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fowler – Larsson14:35
xG 0.97–1.03 (48%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).