Fri, Nov 15, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 011 | 315 | 434 |
| TOR | 09 | 115 | 17 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:48BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Anders Bjork · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 9:20TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Jake Muzzin, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 0:11BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Brandon Carlo, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 3:54TORKasperi KapanenAssists: John Tavares, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 5:08BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 18:27BOSZdeno CharaENUnassisted · Slap, 0.60 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:09BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min
- P1 16:37TORNicholas Shore: Holding2 min
- P2 11:11TORAndreas Johnsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:52BOSPatrice Bergeron: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:45
xG 0.94–0.44 (68%)attempts 14–12goals 1–2
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly9:27
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Krejci – Coyle – Bjork14:17
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Heinen – Frederic – Lindholm7:34
xG 0.05–0.31 (15%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo14:26
xG 1.35–0.25 (85%)attempts 22–11goals 2–1
- Clifton – Vaakanainen11:48
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Chara – Carlo3:02
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Petan – Mikheyev5:21
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews14:31
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Shore – Petan – Gauthier5:32
xG 0.02–0.10 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Kapanen13:16
xG 0.38–1.12 (25%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Barrie16:09
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 23–14goals 0–0
- Barrie – Rielly2:13
xG 0.08–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott11:24
xG 0.58–0.67 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).