Fri, Nov 15, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 015 | 415 | 110 | 540 |
| WSH | 09 | 09 | 210 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:22MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 9:16MTLShea WeberAssists: Ben Chiarot, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 11:41MTLJordan WealGWGAssists: Nate Thompson, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 14:42MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Phillip Danault, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 5:34WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 15:38WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 17:29MTLTomas TatarENAssists: Ben Chiarot, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 12:36WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:13MTLJeff Petry: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Armia – Domi10:55
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weal – Cousins8:15
xG 0.34–0.09 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Tatar – Lehkonen – Suzuki8:46
xG 0.30–0.06 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Gallagher – Danault2:12
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Mete18:28
xG 1.02–0.44 (70%)attempts 24–13goals 1–1
- Kulak – Fleury13:12
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak2:03
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:28
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
- Kuznetsov – Leipsic – Hathaway3:10
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson2:53
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Eller – Panik – Hathaway4:14
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov5:41
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny12:09
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
- Jensen – Kempny2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).