Fri, Nov 15, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 110 | 07 | 01 | 227 |
| CBJ | 114 | 010 | 111 | 14 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:34CBJVladislav GavrikovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 19:17STLMackenzie MacEachernAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:04STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jaden Schwartz, David Perron · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 2:50CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 3:34CBJZach WerenskiPPGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Cam Atkinson · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:45CBJGustav Nyquist: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P1 14:06STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:58CBJEric Robinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:40STLSammy Blais: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:36CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:03STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Thomas14:06
xG 0.69–0.15 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford11:50
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Perron – Bozak – O'Reilly3:48
xG 0.03–0.04 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bozak – de la Rose – Blais6:21
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Parayko19:02
xG 0.79–0.52 (60%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Dunn12:34
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Faulk15:59
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Bjorkstrand – Dubois2:39
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Anderson – Wennberg – Robinson4:46
xG 0.20–0.00 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Milano – Dubois – Bemstrom3:20
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Wennberg – Milano5:12
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski20:44
xG 0.88–0.53 (62%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Harrington – Kukan14:06
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov13:41
xG 0.63–1.05 (37%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).