Fri, Nov 15, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 08 | 09 | 127 |
| OTT | 06 | 28 | 05 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46PHITyler PitlickAssists: Andy Andreoff · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 13:12OTTTyler EnnisPPAssists: Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 17:09OTTFilip ChlapikGWGAssists: Chris Tierney, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:18OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:52PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:39OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:00PHIKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:31OTTFilip Chlapik: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:38PHIPhilippe Myers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:43OTTColin White: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brown won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Farabee6:40
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Hayes4:05
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny10:37
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Voracek – Raffl – Farabee2:48
xG 0.03–0.01 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Gostisbehere11:10
xG 0.74–0.28 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Provorov13:29
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Namestnikov – White10:07
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Ryan – Tierney – Chlapik6:00
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Duclair – Brown – Tkachuk8:50
xG 0.29–0.55 (34%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Paul11:12
xG 0.35–0.69 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev15:16
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo14:30
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Brannstrom11:32
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).