Sat, Nov 16, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 5, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 110 | 215 | 11 | 536 |
| EDM | 211 | 219 | 04 | 00 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57DALJason DickinsonAssists: Tyler Seguin, Roman Polak · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 9:08EDMJujhar KhairaUnassisted · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 19:26EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 0:48DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Dickinson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 3:34EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 18:41EDMEthan BearAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 5:21DALBlake ComeauSHAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 18:11DALTyler SeguinSHAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Anton Khudobin · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
- OT 1:14DALJamie BennSHGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:14DALNick Caamano: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:17DALNick Caamano: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:46DALBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:28EDMPatrick Russell: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:58EDMOscar Klefbom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Benn – Seguin3:56
xG 0.48–0.10 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Radulov – Gurianov2:17
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Dickinson7:45
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa7:30
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Heiskanen3:36
xG 0.95–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen6:08
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen9:58
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Khaira – Russell11:53
xG 0.89–0.57 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Gagner – Granlund – Haas4:44
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid15:20
xG 0.79–0.91 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 1–3
- Neal – Archibald – Nugent-Hopkins10:20
xG 0.03–0.48 (6%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Jones13:25
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear15:52
xG 0.88–0.86 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 2–3
- Russell – Benning11:49
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).