Sat, Nov 16, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 120 | 114 | 17 | 12 | 443 |
| MTL | 19 | 214 | 011 | 00 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:41MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:41NJDNikita GusevAssists: Blake Coleman, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 7:43MTLCale FleuryAssists: Phillip Danault · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 18:42MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Max Domi, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
- P2 19:58NJDNico HischierSHAssists: Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 15:12NJDWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.32 xG3–3
- OT 1:30NJDKyle PalmieriPPGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P2 17:47NJDP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:18NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:09MTLJordan Weal: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:34NJDJohn Hayden: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:21MTLMax Domi: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:29MTLBrett Kulak: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 8:02NJDWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:07NJDMiles Wood: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:18MTLMax Domi: Interference2 min
- P3 11:18MTLMax Domi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:37NJDKyle Palmieri: Cross checking2 min
- OT 0:44MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Gusev10:29
xG 0.85–0.22 (80%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier10:14
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Wood – Hughes8:24
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Hayden – Zacha5:48
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Butcher14:05
xG 1.07–0.26 (81%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson15:20
xG 0.90–0.42 (68%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
- Tennyson – Mueller8:37
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Weal – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi7:39
xG 0.06–0.15 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:59
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Thompson – Cousins – Hudon7:00
xG 0.13–0.61 (17%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Domi – Suzuki11:54
xG 0.08–0.62 (12%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Mete14:54
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Kulak – Fleury13:24
xG 0.45–0.79 (36%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot16:27
xG 0.41–0.89 (32%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).