Sat, Nov 16, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 3, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 28 | 113 | 012 | 333 |
| FLA | 213 | 211 | 06 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 2:39NYRRyan StromeAssists: Jesper Fast, Ryan Lindgren · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 6:50FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 8:47NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Ryan Strome, Libor Hajek · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 5:47NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Artemi Panarin, Greg McKegg · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 7:51FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 17:44FLAEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:01NYRPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:18NYRMicheal Haley: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:59FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:26NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:58FLAMike Hoffman: Holding2 min
- P3 15:31FLADryden Hunt: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:00NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMcKegg – Lemieux – Howden7:29
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin15:52
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Kreider – Buchnevich – Chytil8:20
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo14:59
xG 0.75–0.12 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren11:38
xG 0.72–1.00 (42%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Trouba – Hajek12:47
xG 0.24–0.71 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:44
xG 1.22–0.49 (71%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Boyle – Connolly – Trocheck10:26
xG 0.44–0.38 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari7:33
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
- Hoffman – Vatrano – Malgin11:32
xG 0.27–0.96 (22%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Brown5:44
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Brown4:55
xG 0.46–0.38 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad19:04
xG 0.84–0.81 (51%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).