Sat, Nov 16, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 013 | 311 | 03 | 2 | 436 |
| PHI | 214 | 14 | 012 | 01 | 0 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38PHISean CouturierAssists: Oskar Lindblom · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:36PHIIvan ProvorovPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Matt Niskanen · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 12:20PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Joel Farabee, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 7:46NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Derick Brassard, Brock Nelson · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 13:34NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 17:56NYIAnthony BeauvillierUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle scored
- 2. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal scored
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:00NYIJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min
- P1 18:11NYIJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:03PHIKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:49PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min
- P3 3:01NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min
- P3 11:44PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Nelson – Beauvillier11:16
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal3:22
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Dal Colle3:58
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johnston – Dal Colle – Koivula3:18
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews12:53
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy11:17
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock16:41
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Raffl – Konecny8:56
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Hayes11:16
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Farabee12:07
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 14–19goals 2–1
- Stewart – Pitlick – Andreoff5:43
xG 0.03–0.35 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Braun – Sanheim2:30
xG 0.02–0.06 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Gostisbehere12:59
xG 0.17–0.35 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hagg – Sanheim11:30
xG 0.31–0.67 (31%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).