Sat, Nov 16, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 7, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 28 | 37 | 724 |
| NSH | 012 | 014 | 215 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 18:04CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Kirby Dach · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 1:51CHIBrent SeabrookGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Dylan Strome · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 11:39CHIDavid KampfAssists: Olli Maatta, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 3:40NSHRoman JosiAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–1
- P3 9:09CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 14:02CHIAlex NylanderAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–1
- P3 17:28CHIAlex NylanderAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.04 xG7–1
- P3 18:52NSHRoman JosiAssists: Kyle Turris, Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.02 xG7–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 15:35NSHMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
- P2 19:35CHIBrandon Saad: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – Nylander12:08
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 3–0
- Shaw – Kubalik – Kampf12:15
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat13:17
xG 0.25–0.69 (26%)attempts 5–16goals 2–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Dach10:03
xG 0.24–0.82 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – de Haan16:06
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 11–23goals 3–0
- Murphy – Maatta16:04
xG 0.52–0.85 (38%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Keith – Gustafsson17:04
xG 0.26–0.66 (28%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Smith – Grimaldi10:30
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Granlund4:01
xG 0.44–0.05 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Johansen – Granlund – Forsberg10:38
xG 0.52–0.38 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson7:56
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis17:13
xG 0.99–0.57 (64%)attempts 19–16goals 2–2
- Ekholm – Fabbro16:35
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 0–3
- Ellis – Ekholm2:14
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).