Sat, Nov 16, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 28 | 16 | 11 | 523 |
| VAN | 15 | 111 | 216 | 00 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:56COLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Erik Johnson, Nikita Zadorov · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 18:27VANAdam GaudettePPAssists: Josh Leivo, Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 7:51COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 11:28COLNazem KadriAssists: Cale Makar, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 19:58VANAdam GaudettePPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 6:09COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 17:23VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 19:00VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.39 xG4–4
- OT 0:27COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Cale Makar, J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.16 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:35COLRyan Graves: Holding2 min
- P1 3:31VANChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:35VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 10:05COLMatt Calvert: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:07COLRyan Graves: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:48VANSven Baertschi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:53VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P2 13:17COLNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:29VANAdam Gaudette: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:52COLIan Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:03COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:13COLJoonas Donskoi: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:13VANElias Pettersson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Compher7:01
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Nieto – Nichushkin – Bellemare6:25
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Calvert – Donskoi – MacKinnon9:20
xG 0.34–0.64 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar3:20
xG 0.35–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard10:05
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Graves – Makar6:37
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson10:04
xG 0.48–0.08 (85%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Schaller – Horvat2:45
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Leivo – Baertschi – Gaudette6:46
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen6:56
xG 0.10–0.36 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hughes9:50
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Stecher6:56
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Edler – Myers13:11
xG 0.57–1.29 (31%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).