Sat, Nov 16, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 211 | 14 | 05 | 0 | 328 |
| SJS | 19 | 25 | 05 | 00 | 1 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:59SJSKevin LabancAssists: Logan Couture, Radim Simek · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 1:11SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 1:24DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Robby Fabbri, Joe Hicketts · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 11:34DETTaro HiroseAssists: Brendan Perlini, Madison Bowey · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 12:32SJSErik KarlssonPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 15:46DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Robby Fabbri · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. SJS Kevin Labanc scored
- 3. DET Andreas Athanasiou stopped
- 4. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 5. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:00DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:41DETAnthony Mantha: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:21SJSMelker Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:16DETJoe Hicketts: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:27SJSTimo Meier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 1:39SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Athanasiou – Fabbri9:18
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne8:38
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Perlini – Hirose6:31
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin13:22
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Biega11:50
xG 0.54–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Bowey – Cholowski17:15
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- McIlrath – Hicketts17:03
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Kane – Labanc6:35
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 2–1
- Marleau – Couture – Labanc4:05
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Gambrell – Radil6:37
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Goodrow – Hertl3:39
xG 0.01–0.04 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson16:01
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Dillon – Ferraro15:32
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Simek15:42
xG 0.42–0.91 (31%)attempts 12–18goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).