Sun, Nov 17, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 013 | 011 | 110 | 134 |
| CHI | 110 | 110 | 27 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:43CHIKirby DachAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Andrew Shaw · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 12:32CHIKirby DachGWGAssists: Zack Smith, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 3:42CHIPatrick KanePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P3 8:57CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brandon Saad, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 9:39BUFJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:59CHIAlex DeBrincat: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:40BUFJimmy Vesey: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:24BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:31CHIAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:25BUFBrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:01CHIErik Gustafsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:01BUFJimmy Vesey: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:04BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P2 19:58CHIKirby Dach: Interference2 min
- P3 3:34BUFJake McCabe: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:04CHIOlli Maatta: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Lazar – Mittelstadt7:01
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Asplund – Thompson5:08
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Sheary – Rodrigues9:10
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:14
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju13:40
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
- McCabe – Ristolainen12:00
xG 0.58–0.53 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Montour – Dahlin14:14
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – Nylander10:08
xG 0.65–0.52 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Shaw – Kubalik – Kampf6:43
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Dach8:52
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat10:22
xG 0.16–0.77 (18%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Maatta11:40
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Seabrook – de Haan11:35
xG 0.65–0.76 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Keith – Gustafsson12:00
xG 0.31–0.58 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).