Tue, Nov 19, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 211 | 217 | 15 | 542 |
| PIT | 211 | 114 | 16 | 00 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:34PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:18PITBrandon TanevAssists: John Marino, Jared McCann · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 2:39NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Nick Leddy, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 5:30NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Nick Leddy, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 14:31PITBrandon TanevAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Dominik Kahun · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 2:39PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 15:41NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Jordan Eberle, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 18:28NYIRyan PulockSHAssists: Derick Brassard, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 2:55NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:50NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:06PITJared McCann: Holding2 min
- P1 8:49PITJuuso Riikola: Holding2 min
- P1 10:30NYINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:42NYIMichael Dal Colle: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:15NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:37PITBryan Rust: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal8:43
xG 1.37–0.04 (97%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier11:46
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Komarov – Bailey – Koivula5:08
xG 0.01–0.06 (18%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Komarov – Dal Colle – Koivula2:23
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy10:02
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Toews13:31
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock11:24
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – Blandisi – Simon7:09
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Blueger – Lafferty – Aston-Reese10:35
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Guentzel13:26
xG 0.77–1.02 (43%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- McCann – Tanev – Kahun10:05
xG 0.22–0.64 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Riikola3:33
xG 0.51–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Pettersson9:58
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Johnson – Riikola8:00
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).