Tue, Nov 19, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 111 | 08 | 232 |
| CBJ | 113 | 17 | 36 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24CBJEric RobinsonAssists: David Savard, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 16:31MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Phillip Danault, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 4:29MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 12:50CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Emil Bemstrom · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 6:54CBJEmil BemstromGWGAssists: Sonny Milano, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 11:06CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 14:33CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.10 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 13:14MTLJordan Weal: Holding2 min
- P2 18:00CBJRyan Murray: Holding2 min
- P3 10:46MTLMax Domi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:09CBJZach Werenski: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault12:00
xG 0.82–0.34 (71%)attempts 22–6goals 0–1
- Armia – Domi – Suzuki11:44
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Thompson – Cousins – Hudon8:48
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Weal – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi11:58
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete15:40
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot16:02
xG 0.65–0.76 (46%)attempts 24–10goals 1–3
- Kulak – Fleury16:14
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Atkinson – Texier11:35
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Milano – Dubois – Bemstrom12:49
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Anderson – Wennberg – Robinson11:36
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand8:55
xG 0.00–0.64 (0%)attempts 1–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Murray18:37
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski17:47
xG 0.80–0.72 (52%)attempts 17–19goals 2–1
- Kukan – Gavrikov14:16
xG 0.13–0.76 (14%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).