Tue, Nov 19, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 2, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 17 | 010 | 225 |
| NSH | 010 | 113 | 016 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 3:47WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Jack Roslovic, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 18:11NSHNick BoninoAssists: Rocco Grimaldi, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:38NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:36WPGNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:36NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:45WPGLuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P1 19:19WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:21NSHSteven Santini: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:17WPGMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min
- P3 15:17NSHMikael Granlund: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Gustafsson – Luoto3:53
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Shaw – Copp2:08
xG 0.06–0.01 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine12:36
xG 0.54–0.58 (49%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic8:37
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey16:57
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 15–20goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Pionk16:19
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 14–23goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Beaulieu11:33
xG 0.27–0.81 (25%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Jarnkrok – Granlund11:15
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi9:21
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Watson – Sissons – Olivier6:12
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:51
xG 0.11–0.46 (19%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro15:50
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis16:50
xG 0.66–0.68 (49%)attempts 24–18goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Santini8:05
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).