Tue, Nov 19, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 1, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 114 | 011 | 133 |
| DAL | 111 | 210 | 310 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:53DALJamie BennAssists: Radek Faksa, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 9:59DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 11:24VANBo HorvatAssists: Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 13:37DALTaylor FedunAssists: Jason Dickinson, Nick Caamano · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 2:44DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Justin Dowling, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 3:26DALJustin DowlingAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–5
- P3 8:29DALCorey PerryAssists: Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:05VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P1 15:48DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:52VANJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:34DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:18DALJason Dickinson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:26VANQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:29DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:07DALTaylor Fedun: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Virtanen – Gaudette3:51
xG 0.44–0.11 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pearson – Virtanen – Pettersson2:58
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Leivo – Miller – Horvat5:38
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 8–3goals 0–2
- Pearson – Boeser – Pettersson5:16
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher4:30
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Tanev – Hughes11:00
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Myers – Hughes5:15
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dowling – Seguin7:53
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Perry – Dickinson – Caamano8:38
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:32
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Radulov – Gurianov8:31
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Polak15:04
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Fedun – Lindell12:18
xG 0.80–0.54 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen14:21
xG 0.24–0.53 (32%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).