Tue, Nov 19, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 08 | 216 | 233 |
| VGK | 010 | 117 | 310 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:07VGKCody GlassPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P3 7:26TORJason SpezzaAssists: Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 8:08VGKTomas NosekUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 10:22VGKMark StonePPGWGAssists: Cody Glass, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 12:47TORZach HymanPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–3
- P3 19:39VGKCody EakinENAssists: Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:37TORJustin Holl: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:00TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:01VGKRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:40VGKBrayden McNabb: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Nylander – Matthews13:18
xG 1.53–0.68 (69%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Kapanen13:36
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Spezza – Petan – Mikheyev8:16
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Shore – Gauthier – Engvall6:17
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Rielly2:10
xG 0.86–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Rielly – Ceci17:22
xG 1.19–0.86 (58%)attempts 23–24goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott3:17
xG 0.11–0.00 (97%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Stone – Marchessault14:29
xG 0.92–0.39 (70%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek8:18
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Tuch – Glass11:36
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Smith – Karlsson12:14
xG 0.59–1.28 (31%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Theodore – Hague15:48
xG 0.55–0.54 (50%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Engelland – Merrill15:55
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt16:30
xG 1.07–1.37 (44%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).