Tue, Nov 19, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 39 | 111 | 19 | 529 |
| SJS | 118 | 09 | 18 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34EDMMarkus GranlundAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Gaetan Haas · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:59EDMZack KassianPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 9:23SJSKevin LabancPPAssists: Logan Couture, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 19:45EDMJujhar KhairaGWGAssists: Kris Russell, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 17:19EDMJames NealAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Slap, 0.27 xG4–1
- P3 6:34EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 9:43SJSBarclay GoodrowSHAssists: Radim Simek, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:19EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:20SJSMario Ferraro: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:59SJSBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P3 4:00EDMConnor McDavid: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Archibald – Nygard8:59
xG 1.36–0.09 (94%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid15:24
xG 1.22–0.56 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Neal – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira10:39
xG 0.71–0.59 (55%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Granlund – Haas10:08
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear17:37
xG 2.25–0.93 (71%)attempts 22–16goals 2–1
- Russell – Klefbom8:09
xG 0.82–0.38 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Russell – Jones2:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Gambrell – Radil3:57
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Hertl – Meier4:33
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Thornton – Sorensen – Karlsson7:49
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Thornton – Marleau – Sorensen4:14
xG 0.03–0.34 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Simek15:18
xG 0.83–0.38 (69%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Dillon2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson12:48
xG 1.25–1.30 (49%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).