Wed, Nov 20, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 014 | 17 | 131 |
| NYR | 010 | 19 | 312 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:14NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 3:57NYRArtemi PanarinPPGWGAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 4:20NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Filip Chytil, Brendan Lemieux · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 7:24WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: John Carlson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 13:34NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:26WSHTom Wilson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:02NYRGreg McKegg: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:32WSHDmitry Orlov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:08NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:32NYRBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:32WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:32NYRBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLeipsic – Stephenson – Malenstyn6:48
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana11:13
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson13:30
xG 0.42–0.85 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
- Panik – Sgarbossa – Boyd6:31
xG 0.14–0.86 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny12:50
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Jensen – Siegenthaler3:08
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen9:45
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Buchnevich – Chytil9:47
xG 0.51–0.20 (71%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Howden – Kakko8:19
xG 0.53–0.69 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin10:55
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Hajek12:27
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo12:43
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren10:17
xG 0.58–0.77 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).