Thu, Nov 21, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 117 | 07 | 114 | 238 |
| BOS | 14 | 114 | 19 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–0
- P1 13:52BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 14:45BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen · Snap, 0.36 xG1–2
- P3 1:56BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Danton Heinen, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 12:58BUFBrandon MontourAssists: Conor Sheary, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:05BOSSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:14BOSChris Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:14BOSChris Wagner: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:14BUFCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:14BUFCurtis Lazar: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:44BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:15BUFRasmus Asplund: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:16BOSCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:32BUFJake McCabe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:33BOSJoakim Nordstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Sheary – Rodrigues8:36
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt7:08
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Lazar6:10
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Vesey – Reinhart – Eichel13:12
xG 0.29–0.96 (23%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju11:04
xG 0.93–0.46 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Montour – Dahlin13:40
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:35
xG 0.42–0.64 (40%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:09
xG 0.73–0.32 (70%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Lindholm2:06
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Bjork7:37
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Krejci – Pastrnak – DeBrusk3:12
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy17:48
xG 1.00–0.35 (74%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Carlo – Vaakanainen2:06
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton4:11
xG 0.01–0.07 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).