Thu, Nov 21, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Anaheim Ducks 4, Florida Panthers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 111 | 311 | 010 | 00 | 432 |
| FLA | 08 | 28 | 211 | 11 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:15ANAMax JonesAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Jacob Larsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 7:17ANANick RitchieAssists: Ondrej Kase, Erik Gudbranson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 15:50ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 18:39ANAOndrej KaseUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P2 18:53FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 19:20FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 11:55FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 15:37FLADominic ToninatoAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–4
- OT 0:22FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (2)
- P2 4:50ANACarter Rowney: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:37FLADenis Malgin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Rakell – Terry14:45
xG 0.97–0.18 (85%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Kase – Steel13:20
xG 0.63–0.25 (71%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones10:38
xG 0.31–0.59 (35%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney10:58
xG 0.11–0.60 (15%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Guhle16:45
xG 0.73–0.42 (63%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
- Del Zotto – Larsson19:06
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Mahura17:04
xG 1.31–1.08 (55%)attempts 26–18goals 2–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Toninato – Malgin3:36
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Toninato – Acciari4:22
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Vatrano – Malgin4:39
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov18:23
xG 0.88–0.93 (49%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Matheson7:38
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad19:07
xG 1.27–1.31 (49%)attempts 23–17goals 2–1
- Matheson – Brown11:54
xG 0.26–0.65 (28%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).