Thu, Nov 21, 2019·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 110 | 18 | 00 | 326 |
| NYI | 15 | 19 | 19 | 11 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jake Guentzel, John Marino · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 15:12NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 1:09PITBryan RustUnassisted · Slap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:38NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 15:08NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:30PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- OT 4:16NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:30NYIAdam Pelech: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:28PITChad Ruhwedel: Holding2 min
- P1 10:55PITMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:35PITJake Guentzel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:35PITJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:26PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:46NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:08PITTeddy Blueger: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 9:27NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P3 15:04PITSam Lafferty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:42NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:42PITZachary Aston-Reese: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Guentzel9:32
xG 0.64–0.06 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Blueger – Lafferty – Aston-Reese6:21
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Simon – Kahun8:58
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – McCann – Tanev5:52
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Marino13:01
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Trotman – Pettersson13:27
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Trotman2:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Cizikas – Dal Colle3:37
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal11:29
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:05
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Dal Colle – Koivula5:54
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews10:55
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech3:09
xG 0.02–0.02 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock10:46
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).