Thu, Nov 21, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 26 | 19 | 426 |
| CBJ | 117 | 110 | 310 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Seth Jones, Cam Atkinson · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:06DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Anthony Mantha, Madison Bowey · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 4:30CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Seth Jones, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 16:03DETFilip HronekAssists: Robby Fabbri, Andreas Athanasiou · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 16:47DETLuke GlendeningSHAssists: Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 7:40CBJOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 8:43CBJBoone JennerAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 13:49CBJEric RobinsonGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–5
- P3 16:46DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dennis Cholowski, Andreas Athanasiou · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:10CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:10DETDylan McIlrath: Interference2 min
- P2 2:59DETDylan McIlrath: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:13DETMadison Bowey: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:59CBJSeth Jones: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:48CBJGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:36DETDylan McIlrath: Interference2 min
- P3 6:31DETRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin13:11
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Glendening – Erne – Ehn4:15
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Fabbri8:25
xG 0.08–1.13 (7%)attempts 4–15goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestMcIlrath – Hicketts3:48
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Bowey2:34
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hicketts – Hronek2:25
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Wennberg – Robinson6:30
xG 0.64–0.22 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Texier9:46
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Milano – Dubois – Bemstrom7:55
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Texier – Robinson2:22
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKukan – Gavrikov10:44
xG 0.92–0.13 (88%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski12:50
xG 0.61–0.65 (48%)attempts 19–10goals 1–2
- Savard – Murray17:11
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).