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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 21, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Vancouver Canucks 6, Nashville Predators 3

Away

Vancouver Canucks

6

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.

NSH winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN283916623
NSH110116122348

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:07NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Roman Josi, Viktor Arvidsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:34VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:34VANTyler GraovacAssists: Alexander Edler, Josh Leivo · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P2 4:56NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mikael Granlund, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 7:07VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P2 18:05VANBrock BoeserGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
  7. P2 18:32VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.34 xG5–2
  8. P3 8:31NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–3
  9. P3 17:58VANTanner PearsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 2:07VANAdam Gaudette: Interference2 min
  2. P1 15:31NSHDante Fabbro: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 17:22NSHMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 19:22VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 3:28VANTim Schaller: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 5:57NSHCraig Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 8:52NSHDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 12:27VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 17:19NSHViktor Arvidsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
  10. P2 18:19NSHMathieu Olivier: Holding2 min
  11. P3 0:58VANAlexander Edler: Holding the stick2 min
  12. P3 16:11VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
45% to win55% to win
← VAN attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Horvat
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANNSH
23Shots on goal48
2.5Expected goals4.5
36Shot attempts86
37Faceoffs won36
6Power plays6
12Penalty minutes12
5Hits17
22Blocked shots7
11Giveaways13
4Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestLeivo – Virtanen – Gaudette7:33

    xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0

  2. Miller – Boeser – Pettersson2:04

    xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

  3. Miller – Horvat – MacEwen8:28

    xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0

  4. Pearson – Boeser – Pettersson7:29

    xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestTanev – Hughes8:55

    xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0

  2. Edler – Stecher14:11

    xG 0.50–0.81 (38%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0

  3. Myers – Benn12:29

    xG 0.22–1.30 (15%)attempts 3–20goals 0–2

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestBonino – Smith – Grimaldi8:20

    xG 0.85–0.26 (76%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0

  2. Duchene – Jarnkrok – Granlund10:56

    xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0

  3. Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:23

    xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 22–4goals 1–0

  4. Watson – Sissons – Olivier3:35

    xG 0.02–0.38 (5%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestEkholm – Fabbro14:54

    xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0

  2. Josi – Ellis13:15

    xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0

  3. Hamhuis – Santini7:53

    xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 4.5 xGVAN 2.5 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #250 of 1082 this seasonSwing 1.51 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 31% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.

NSH winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).