Thu, Nov 21, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 210 | 011 | 227 |
| MIN | 011 | 213 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:48MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 2:41MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Luke Kunin, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 14:19COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 18:49COLCale MakarAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 9:58MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:00COLNazem Kadri: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:39COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:39MINCarson Soucy: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00COLJoonas Donskoi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:36COLJayson Megna: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:48MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:31COLT.J. Tynan: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:01MINKevin Fiala: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – MacKinnon6:04
xG 0.14–0.00 (97%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Tynan – Compher4:37
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Compher – Nichushkin6:05
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nieto – Megna – Bellemare5:36
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Makar2:19
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov9:18
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Graves2:26
xG 0.10–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zuccarello – Zucker9:08
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Rask – Hartman – Donato6:18
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin13:01
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala9:34
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:30
xG 1.01–0.42 (70%)attempts 21–14goals 2–1
- Hunt – Soucy8:50
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:01
xG 0.40–0.69 (37%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).