Fri, Nov 22, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 120 | 011 | 137 |
| PIT | 118 | 114 | 29 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:51PITDominik KahunAssists: Dominik Simon · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 0:31NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:27PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 2:05PITJared McCannAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 2:30PITJohn MarinoAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Sam Lafferty · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:45NJDMiles Wood: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:40PITChad Ruhwedel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:42NJDMiles Wood: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:14NJDDamon Severson: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:14PITPatric Hornqvist: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:14PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:54PITJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:16PITZach Trotman: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:03NJDWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Boqvist – Hughes10:17
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev10:28
xG 0.21–0.42 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- Wood – Zacha – Bratt8:24
xG 0.05–0.32 (13%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier9:46
xG 0.21–1.35 (14%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Butcher12:02
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher3:48
xG 0.07–0.33 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson13:05
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Guentzel13:31
xG 1.15–0.16 (88%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Blueger – Lafferty – Aston-Reese8:36
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Galchenyuk – McCann – Tanev10:37
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Simon – Kahun8:25
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrotman – Pettersson14:55
xG 0.71–0.06 (92%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Marino16:25
xG 1.10–0.48 (70%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel14:43
xG 0.66–0.67 (50%)attempts 10–22goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).