Sat, Nov 23, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Minnesota Wild 4, Boston Bruins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 115 | 211 | 17 | 03 | 436 |
| BOS | 010 | 213 | 215 | 11 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Brad Hunt, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P2 4:14BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Brett Ritchie · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:14MINVictor RaskAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 14:26MINEric StaalPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 19:56BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 5:19MINKevin FialaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 18:05BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 18:53BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 2:41BOSTorey KrugGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:07MINJared Spurgeon: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:55BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:46BOSTorey Krug: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:25BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:25MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:56BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:43BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:14BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:30BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:39MINVictor Rask: Holding2 min
- P3 18:29MINLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRask – Hartman – Donato7:44
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala7:14
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin11:46
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker7:52
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:00
xG 0.95–0.42 (69%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
- Hunt – Soucy7:02
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:32
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 7–21goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Ritchie – DeBrusk7:45
xG 0.36–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Bjork11:48
xG 0.43–0.37 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly3:47
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:25
xG 0.25–0.93 (21%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Krug3:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy5:10
xG 0.27–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Krug – McAvoy2:40
xG 0.29–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).