Sat, Nov 23, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 26 | 010 | 07 | 223 |
| CAR | 28 | 110 | 116 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:36FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Noel Acciari · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:54FLABrian BoyleAssists: Colton Sceviour, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 9:35CARBrett PesceAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Joel Edmundson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 14:20CARMartin NecasAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:45CARDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:58CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:01CARRyan Dzingel: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:39CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:48FLABrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:00FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Sceviour – Acciari8:13
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Hoffman – Toninato – Malgin4:21
xG 0.03–0.20 (15%)attempts 2–8goals 0–2
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:18
xG 0.68–0.90 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Connolly – Trocheck – Vatrano12:20
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad4:48
xG 0.50–0.35 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad6:11
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Matheson – Brown3:07
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov13:45
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Wallmark – Necas11:14
xG 0.59–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Dzingel – Martinook – Luostarinen7:13
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
- Staal – McGinn – Foegele11:56
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Pesce14:09
xG 0.85–0.19 (81%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin17:38
xG 0.86–0.56 (61%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk11:15
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 18–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).