Sat, Nov 23, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 1, San Jose Sharks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 110 | 011 | 00 | 128 |
| SJS | 013 | 16 | 05 | 12 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:38SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Mario Ferraro, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 7:05NYICasey CizikasAssists: Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–1
- OT 2:30SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:06NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:55SJSRadim Simek: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:37SJSBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:37NYICasey Cizikas: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:05SJSKevin Labanc: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 12:08SJSLukas Radil: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:42SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:32SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:26SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Dal Colle3:11
xG 0.44–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Bailey – Dal Colle – Koivula5:23
xG 0.03–0.04 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:39
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal8:24
xG 0.35–0.46 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Toews2:51
xG 0.15–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews10:38
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech3:28
xG 0.04–0.01 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Goodrow – Meier5:46
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc4:23
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Meier – Suomela2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Gambrell6:35
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson13:49
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Dillon – Ferraro10:11
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Burns – Heed4:19
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).