Sun, Nov 24, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 25 | 29 | 112 | 526 |
| FLA | 012 | 116 | 117 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:24BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jack Eichel, Conor Sheary · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 18:23BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Brandon Montour, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 3:42BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 9:29FLANoel AcciariUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 14:41BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 3:08FLABrett ConnollyPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 13:25BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:31FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:09BUFJack Eichel: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:26BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:14BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:05BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 17:21FLAAleksander Barkov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Vesey – Reinhart – Eichel5:06
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel9:08
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Skinner – Sheary – Mittelstadt7:01
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Ristolainen12:34
xG 0.60–0.72 (45%)attempts 10–19goals 2–1
- Scandella – Jokiharju9:55
xG 0.17–0.47 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin10:59
xG 0.24–0.64 (27%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Toninato – Acciari8:12
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Vatrano – Malgin5:34
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov4:04
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Connolly – Trocheck4:47
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Brown10:42
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Yandle – Ekblad16:38
xG 0.92–0.71 (57%)attempts 23–16goals 0–1
- Stralman – Matheson14:10
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).