Mon, Nov 25, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 08 | 09 | 025 |
| CBJ | 07 | 07 | 15 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:21CBJOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:08OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:09CBJBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:33OTTNick Paul: Interference2 min
- P3 8:36OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:45CBJZach Werenski: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Brown
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Brown – Tkachuk8:42
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Pageau – Brown – Paul12:58
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Boedker – Chlapik – Beaudin5:08
xG 0.17–0.36 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – White9:03
xG 0.06–0.51 (11%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev3:16
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lajoie – Zaitsev7:44
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Chabot15:38
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand10:49
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Dubois – Texier7:12
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Milano – Bemstrom8:19
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Anderson – Wennberg – Robinson8:00
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKukan – Gavrikov10:06
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray15:56
xG 0.52–0.45 (53%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski14:42
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).