Mon, Nov 25, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 16 | 18 | 01 | 1 | 225 |
| NSH | 210 | 013 | 011 | 05 | 2 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59NSHNick BoninoAssists: Rocco Grimaldi, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:37NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 12:30STLDavid PerronAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 13:09STLBrayden SchennAssists: Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL David Perron scored
- 2. NSH Matt Duchene stopped
- 3. STL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 4. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 5. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 6. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
- 7. STL Robert Thomas stopped
- 8. NSH Daniel Carr scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:38NSHDaniel Carr: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:19NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:46STLZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:30NSHMatt Irwin: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:30STLMackenzie MacEachern: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:48STLColton Parayko: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:07NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:38STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Sanford – Thomas3:29
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Barbashev3:55
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Thomas6:53
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford6:43
xG 0.39–0.31 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Parayko17:31
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Dunn11:08
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Smith – Grimaldi8:14
xG 0.69–0.08 (90%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Carr10:49
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg9:28
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Watson – Sissons – Olivier6:17
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Irwin8:30
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis16:51
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Fabbro2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).