Mon, Nov 25, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 113 | 19 | 228 |
| DAL | 216 | 12 | 110 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 13:25DALEsa LindellAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 13:48VGKShea TheodoreAssists: William Carrier, Ryan Reaves · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 17:41DALJason DickinsonGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 1:23VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 12:11DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: John Klingberg, Mattias Janmark · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:25VGKJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:59VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:18VGKCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:18DALJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
- P2 1:08DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:35DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P2 6:17DALRoman Polak: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:43DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:01VGKCody Glass: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone9:10
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:13
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek7:09
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–2
- Eakin – Tuch – Glass8:22
xG 0.07–0.40 (14%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Hague2:15
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Theodore – Hague8:10
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt12:13
xG 0.68–0.48 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Radulov – Dickinson8:02
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Janmark – Gurianov8:40
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:07
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Hintz8:19
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen11:47
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell10:51
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:18
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).