Tue, Nov 26, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Minnesota Wild 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 110 | 17 | 329 |
| NJD | 19 | 115 | 010 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 12:44NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:07MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 13:28NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 3:00MINRyan SuterGWGAssists: Ryan Donato, Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:26NJDBlake Coleman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:44MINMats Zuccarello: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 10:23NJDNico Hischier: Holding2 min
- P2 12:47MINKevin Fiala: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:58NJDMiles Wood: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:34NJDAndy Greene: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Fiala10:53
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Rask – Hartman – Donato9:03
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin12:08
xG 0.58–0.43 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker10:23
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:19
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Hunt – Soucy12:02
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon17:29
xG 0.73–0.79 (48%)attempts 12–20goals 2–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier12:57
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Boqvist – Hughes12:57
xG 0.36–0.22 (63%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Coleman – Hayden – Wood6:49
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Zajac – Gusev – Seney9:19
xG 0.12–0.49 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Vatanen13:35
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Subban – Butcher3:19
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher2:01
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).