Tue, Nov 26, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 0, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 014 | 09 | 032 |
| CHI | 112 | 011 | 215 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Alex Nylander · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 10:42CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 17:20CHIConnor MurphyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:15CHIRyan Carpenter: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:32CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:49DALAlexander Radulov: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa10:03
xG 0.97–0.08 (92%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Radulov – Dickinson6:54
xG 0.27–0.12 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Janmark – Gurianov4:14
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:26
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Oleksiak2:44
xG 0.45–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Heiskanen3:24
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sekera – Fedun10:09
xG 0.86–0.71 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Carpenter – Highmore7:10
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Shaw – Kubalik – Kampf10:26
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Nylander10:16
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Kane – Smith – Carpenter2:18
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Maatta14:15
xG 0.82–0.71 (54%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Keith – Murphy2:38
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Gustafsson16:05
xG 0.78–0.98 (44%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).