Wed, Nov 27, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 216 | 017 | 243 |
| NYR | 311 | 09 | 05 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:12NYRBrendan SmithAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Tony DeAngelo · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 18:20NYRAdam FoxGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Libor Hajek · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 14:29CARRyan DzingelPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Andrei Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 15:58CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:48CARJoel Edmundson: Holding2 min
- P1 2:39CARJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:44NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:02NYRAdam Fox: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:54CARNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:27NYRPavel Buchnevich: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24NYRRyan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:29CARDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P3 16:50NYRFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:24CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chytil won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Foegele – Aho4:17
xG 1.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Wallmark – Svechnikov3:45
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Foegele6:49
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas6:08
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Fleury11:25
xG 0.99–0.39 (72%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Slavin15:14
xG 0.99–0.89 (53%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce12:11
xG 0.13–0.87 (13%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Howden – Kakko7:34
xG 0.52–0.26 (66%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Strome – Panarin – Chytil10:24
xG 1.07–1.17 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:43
xG 0.33–0.64 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Trouba13:17
xG 1.40–0.88 (62%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Hajek8:11
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren11:53
xG 0.10–1.40 (7%)attempts 3–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).