Wed, Nov 27, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vancouver Canucks 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 13 | 311 | 28 | 622 |
| PIT | 214 | 012 | 614 | 840 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29PITJake GuentzelAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:53PITBryan RustPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 16:42VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 7:17VANElias PetterssonAssists: Jake Virtanen, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 18:20VANJake VirtanenAssists: Zack MacEwen, Chris Tanev · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–2
- P2 19:01VANAdam GaudetteAssists: Josh Leivo, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–2
- P3 1:01PITJake GuentzelAssists: Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 2:31VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–3
- P3 3:06VANAdam GaudetteAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–3
- P3 6:16PITDominik KahunAssists: Jared McCann, Marcus Pettersson · Backhand, 0.21 xG6–4
- P3 7:24PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Bryan Rust, John Marino · Slap, 0.04 xG6–5
- P3 10:30PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: John Marino, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–6
- P3 16:54PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.02 xG6–7
- P3 19:59PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–8
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:21VANTroy Stecher: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:18VANElias Pettersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:24PITDominik Kahun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:11PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:08VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:39VANElias Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:39PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P3 16:54VANAdam Gaudette: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Pearson – Gaudette6:37
xG 0.81–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Leivo – Virtanen – Gaudette3:21
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Graovac – Schaller – MacEwen2:51
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – MacEwen7:28
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes13:24
xG 0.88–0.11 (89%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
- Edler – Tanev2:44
xG 0.01–0.20 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Tanev11:58
xG 0.29–0.74 (28%)attempts 5–18goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese2:55
xG 0.57–0.04 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Rust – Guentzel14:14
xG 0.98–0.61 (62%)attempts 21–14goals 3–3
- Blueger – Simon – Aston-Reese6:43
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Kahun4:34
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Marino18:02
xG 1.06–0.15 (87%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin16:07
xG 0.94–0.59 (61%)attempts 23–12goals 3–3
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson10:02
xG 0.07–0.80 (8%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).