Wed, Nov 27, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Florida Panthers 3, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 213 | 115 | 340 |
| WSH | 17 | 15 | 28 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:57WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 11:17FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 19:00WSHRichard PanikAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:22FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 5:18WSHLars EllerAssists: Jakub Vrana · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 11:59WSHBrendan LeipsicGWGAssists: Radko Gudas, Jonas Siegenthaler · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 15:31FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:03WSHRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P1 7:35WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:24FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:44WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min
- P3 12:36FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:36WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Embellishment2 min
- P3 19:11FLAKeith Yandle: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Trocheck – Malgin11:30
xG 1.19–0.65 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Toninato – Vatrano7:10
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Sceviour – Acciari8:14
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov13:37
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Brown11:02
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Yandle – Ekblad17:29
xG 0.98–0.86 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Stralman – Pysyk15:14
xG 0.78–0.79 (50%)attempts 18–12goals 1–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson13:48
xG 0.85–0.40 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Panik – Boyd – Stephenson9:28
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Malenstyn4:20
xG 0.03–0.32 (9%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana10:52
xG 0.25–1.01 (20%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Siegenthaler11:11
xG 0.78–0.27 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 3–1
- Jensen – Kempny2:58
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny13:20
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).