Wed, Nov 27, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 19 | 111 | 12 | 430 |
| NSH | 012 | 210 | 112 | 00 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33VGKMark StoneAssists: Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 6:22VGKReilly SmithAssists: Nate Schmidt · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 7:01NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 11:25NSHRyan EllisAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 1:23NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund, Rocco Grimaldi · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:59VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 1:52VGKPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:06NSHNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:50VGKAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:17VGKShea Theodore: Interference2 min
- P3 15:34NSHDante Fabbro: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek8:43
xG 0.35–0.35 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Eakin – Tuch – Glass10:04
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone14:46
xG 0.41–0.58 (41%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:01
xG 0.49–0.85 (36%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Merrill14:19
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt16:29
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Theodore – Hague14:30
xG 0.46–1.09 (30%)attempts 12–12goals 1–3
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Smith – Grimaldi10:51
xG 0.93–0.15 (86%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg12:25
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Carr10:26
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Watson – Sissons – Olivier8:01
xG 0.07–0.24 (24%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro18:56
xG 1.08–0.48 (69%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis18:41
xG 0.86–0.51 (63%)attempts 19–18goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Irwin9:28
xG 0.38–0.55 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).