Wed, Nov 27, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 05 | 02 | 120 |
| COL | 014 | 119 | 317 | 450 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:17EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 10:50COLNazem KadriAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Calle Rosen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 3:05COLMatt NietoGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Joonas Donskoi · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 4:07COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Ian Cole, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 5:37COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 16:06EDMJosh Archibald: Interference2 min
- P2 2:45EDMAdam Larsson: Elbowing5 min
- P2 2:45EDMAdam Larsson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 5:40EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:22COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 11:22EDMJosh Archibald: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:10COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:17EDMKris Russell: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:25COLJ.T. Compher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:25EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:06COLNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:06EDMZack Kassian: Charging2 min
- P3 19:06EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira4:46
xG 0.24–0.22 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Neal – Gagner – Chiasson4:23
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Granlund2:37
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid13:37
xG 0.80–0.91 (47%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Russell – Larsson5:36
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear17:35
xG 0.88–1.09 (45%)attempts 17–27goals 1–1
- Klefbom – Jones11:33
xG 0.53–1.33 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 0–3
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Nichushkin – Bellemare5:24
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Nieto – MacKinnon4:45
xG 0.53–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Tynan – Kamenev – O'Connor3:05
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Compher – Jost9:01
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Graves9:24
xG 1.25–0.05 (97%)attempts 20–4goals 2–0
- Zadorov – Makar11:47
xG 0.79–0.27 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Girard – Rosen9:51
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).