Wed, Nov 27, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 010 | 07 | 125 |
| LAK | 112 | 110 | 28 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42NYIDerick BrassardAssists: Scott Mayfield, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:46LAKDustin BrownAssists: Alex Iafallo, Ben Hutton · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 16:17LAKJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Michael Amadio, Sean Walker · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 10:19LAKMatt RoyAssists: Blake Lizotte · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 17:53LAKAlex IafalloENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.57 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:53LAKAnze Kopitar: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:05NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:35NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:19LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:33NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:35LAKSean Walker: Holding2 min
- P3 5:33NYIJosh Bailey: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:40LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:40NYIMathew Barzal: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Amadio won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier6:55
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:44
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal11:01
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Komarov – Bailey – Dal Colle4:26
xG 0.02–0.46 (4%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock8:07
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Pelech2:34
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews9:33
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Wagner – Lizotte7:12
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Amadio6:19
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo9:18
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Luff5:57
xG 0.06–0.24 (20%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Hutton15:25
xG 1.25–0.29 (81%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Ryan – Roy11:04
xG 0.18–0.28 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).